Saturday, March 21, 2015

Mega Drought



                                                  Comments due by March 28, 2015
Scientists are now mapping a world that is changing rapidly in often-terrifying ways. Climate disruption and world leaders' unwillingness to act have put us at risk of experiencing mega-droughts, the disappearance of coral reefs and other ecological impacts of an anthropogenically warming planet.
The UN World Meteorological Organization recently announced that 14 of the 15 hottest years ever recorded have occurred since 2000. Ponder that for a moment before reading further.
In what is perhaps eerily prophetic timing, this February marked the 50th anniversary of US President Lyndon B. Johnson's warning about carbon dioxide. In a 1965 special message to Congress, he warned about the buildup of carbon dioxide and said, in what would become the harbinger warning of anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD):
Air pollution is no longer confined to isolated places. This generation has altered the composition of the atmosphere on a global scale through radioactive materials and a steady increase in carbon dioxide from the burning of fossil fuels.
The potential consequences of this warming are also multiplying, as witnessed by a recent NASA study that shows that the United States is "at risk of [a] mega-drought future." The research shows that the Southwest and Central Plains are both on course for super-droughts, which have not been witnessed in over 1,000 years.
In this month's climate dispatch, we document a wide range of research along similar lines: Scientists are now mapping a world that is changing rapidly in often terrifying ways.
Earth
After the single worst mountaineering accident in history took place last summer on Mount Everest, the standard climbing route for that mountain has become off limits. Many mountaineers, including this writer, credit ACD with making the section of the route where the deadly accident occurred more dangerous than ever before.
Climate Disruption DispatchesAn increasing number of reports now demonstrate that ACD is leading to new disease outbreaksaround the world. In fact, many scientists fear that ACD is already creating the ecological basis for infectious deadly diseases to spread to both new places and new hosts as the planet's atmosphere changes.
Other scientists are warning of a coming "climate plague," and say that exotic diseases like Ebola, SARS and West Nile virus will become "increasingly common" as ACD progresses. Less dramatically but equally pertinent, recent studies are already linking ACD to longer and more intense hay fever seasons in the United States.
Wildlife is reflecting the changes to the climate as well. Grizzlies in Yellowstone National Park emerged several weeks early from their winter hibernation due to the arrival of spring-like weather, with warmer temperatures and rain falling instead of the usual snow, according to a park spokesperson.

Dramatic acceleration of ACD and its impacts on agriculture mean that "profound" societal changes are needed in order to feed the world's ever-growing population.

Madagascar's lemur species, most of them already imperiled, are now being severely impacted by the effects of ACD, which will cause an average of half of their current habitats to be removed over the next 70 years.
Although it's not as though we needed any further evidence that ACD is real and progressing rapidly, a study recently published in Nature, drawn from evidence taken from ancient plankton fossils drilled from the ocean floor, supports current predictions about ACD, as it verifies what we are seeing today, and where it will lead, since it has happened in the past.
On the human front, a recent report shows how disasters resulting from ACD are pushing India's poorest children further into poverty and sometimes human trafficking, as parents are displaced.
Lastly, researchers at an annual American Association for the Advancement of Science conference in the United States reported that the dramatic acceleration of ACD and its impacts on agriculture mean that "profound" societal changes are needed in order to feed the world's ever-growing population. One example of these changes is the fact that, according to one of the scientists at the conference, in order to feed the planet between 2000 and 2050, agricultural output would have to produce the same amount of food as was produced in the last 500 years.
Water
As usual, the impact of ACD is extremely clear when it comes to water and water-related issues around the globe.
In Alaska, the annual Iditarod sled dog race is in increasing jeopardy, as warmer temperatures and dwindling snow cover are making it more challenging to run the race. Mushers are having to skirt open-water sections of previously frozen rivers, run their teams and sleds over long sections of bare ground, and run their dogs at night because daytime temperatures are sometimes too warm.
In the Pacific Northwest, a possibly record-setting bad snow year is in full swing, as mountain snowfalls remain at record low levels, and forecasts for the rest of the season are calling for more of the same. By way of example, the snowpack in the Olympic Mountains is at only 8 percent of its usual level.

The planet is experiencing "unabated planetary warming" when one includes the vast amounts of greenhouse-trapped heat in the oceans.

recent report revealed that anthropogenic air pollution in the northern hemisphere is reducing rainfall over Central America. Scientists explained that sun-masking pollution cools the northern hemisphere where most global industry is based. This then pushes the intertropical convergence zone (a rain band that encircles the globe) south because it moves toward the warmer hemisphere.
Researchers from the University of Arizona have shown that melting ice is causing the land to rise up in Iceland, and possibly elsewhere. The result of this could be a dramatic increase in the number of volcanic eruptions around the globe - yet another unintended consequence of ACD.
While it's no secret that glaciers are melting in Antarctica and Greenland, a recently published study provided new evidence that the carbon from melting glaciers is impacting the downstream food chains and having a significant impact on those ecosystems. This means substantial changes to the base of the food web, changes that will have clear ramifications for global fisheries and ultimately, humans' ability to feed themselves.
A recent study published in the journal PLOS ONE, titled "Smothered Oceans: Extreme Oxygen Loss in Oceans Accompanied Past Global Climate Change," revealed that abrupt, extensive loss of oxygen occurred in the oceans when the global ice sheets melted approximately 10,000 to 17,000 years ago. These findings explain similar changes that are already occurring in the oceans right now.
New analysis of thousands of temperature measurements taken during deep ocean probes confirmed that the planet is experiencing "unabated planetary warming" when one includes the vast amounts of greenhouse-trapped heat in the oceans.
Life in the oceans is being impacted in what are increasingly obvious ways. Rutgers University professor Malin Pinsky, who studies the effects of ACD on fisheries, recently announced a study showing species redistribution (having to move to new areas due to temperature changes) of fluke, which are being pushed north toward cooler waters. Pinsky has already studied a similar phenomenon happening with flounder.
In California, nearly 1,000 sea lions have been washed ashore this year in what rehabilitation centers state is a growing crisis for the animals. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officials are blaming warming ocean temperatures for the problem.

ACD-fueled drought continues to plague the planet, as the major vacillations between extreme dryness and floods grow increasingly common.

It's important to place this distressing news for the planet's oceans in a larger - and even more distressing - context. Now is a good time to recall an alarming 2011 report, in which the International Program on the State of the Ocean warned of mass extinction, based on the then-current rate of marine distress. The expert panel of scientists warned that a mass extinction event "unlike anything human history has ever seen" was coming, if the multifaceted degradation of the world's oceans continues.
Since 2011, destruction of the oceans has not only continued, but it has increased dramatically. A World Resources report states that all coral reefs will be gone by 2050 "if no actions are taken," a study published in BioScience states that oysters are already "functionally extinct" since their populations are decimated by overharvesting and disease, and the "dead zone" in the Gulf of Mexico, and others around the globe, continue to break size records.
Other water-related effects of climate disruption abound.
The massive snowfall in Boston this winter set all-time records for snow within 14, 20, and 30-day periods, and has been tied to ACD.
ACD-fueled drought continues to plague the planet, as the major vacillations between extreme dryness and floods grow increasingly common.
Sao Paulo, Brazil's largest and wealthiest city that typically has access to one-eighth of the fresh water on the planet, is now seeingits taps run dry as the region struggles to cope with "an unprecedented water crisis." And in the United States, California's drought continues to make front-page news, as usual. The state suffered one of its driest Januarys on record, indicating that, without a doubt, the state is headed into a fourth straight year of drought.
Also in California, scientists are seeing that state's shrinking snowpack as a harbinger of things to come. They are expecting the snowpack to shrink by at least one-third as the climate continues to warm in the coming decades, and expect that by the end of this century, more than half of what now functions as a massive natural freshwater reservoir could be gone.
Indeed, a recent NASA study warns us of an "unprecedented" North American drought, and shows that California is currently in the midst of its worst drought in more than 1,200 years. The study also shows how things are only going to get worse.
Meanwhile, the distress signals from the Arctic continue to make themselves known, in the form of melting ice.
A study recently published in the Journal of Climate shows that the amount of ice already lost in the Arctic dwarfs any of the ice gains that have occurred around Antarctica. ACD deniers had pointed toward increasing ice buildup in parts of the Antarctic as a sign that ACD was not happening, but this study blows that "argument" out of the water. "I hope that these results will make it clear that, globally, the Earth has lost sea ice over the past several decades, despite the Antarctic gains," wrote study author Claire Parkinson, a sea ice researcher at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Maryland.
Seattle-based urban planner Jeffrey Linn produced a series of maps that show what is going to occur as sea levels continue to rise and major cities are submerged in hundreds of feet of water. They are worth looking at closely.
A study just published in the journal Nature Communications shows that sea levels north of New York City "jumped by 128mm (5 inches)" in just two years. This is an unprecedented rate in the history of tide gauge records. The US scientists who authored the study warned that coastal areas now need to prepare for "short term and extreme sea level events."
Lastly, on the subject of rising sea levels, researchers recently reported that rising sea levels are already impacting Kennedy Space Center in Florida, where the historic and iconic launch pads 39A and 39B are under threat as nearby beachfront is washing away at an alarming rate.
Fire
A recent state-commissioned study in the US projects between a 2.5 to 5.5-degree Fahrenheit temperature increase by 2050, which would bring more disease, crop damage and wildfires to the state of Colorado, along with other states in the center of the country.
To make matters worse, another recent report makes it clear that wildfire season in the United States, which used to be confined to the months of July and August, has grown two and a half months longer in the last 40 years - and continues to expand.
Beyond the US, a recent study in the New Scientist revealed that ACD-augmented wildfires could begin releasing radioactive material locked in contaminated forest soils around Chernobyl, allowing them to spread all over Europe.
Air
A recent study published in Scientific Reports reveals that the forests' ability to suck carbon from the atmosphere is likely slowing down. The ramifications for this are obvious: With forests' ability to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere compromised, the impacts of ACD speed up dramatically.
Climate Central recently published an interactive tool called Winter Loses Its Cool, which allows you to see how daily low temperature projections for US cities are being impacted by ACD.
A modeling study published in LiveScience in February shows how ACD is spawning even more tornadoes in the US Southeast.
Another report - which shouldn't surprise anyone living in the frigid northeastern US - shows how ACD is clearly shifting the jet stream that drives the weather for that region. This has been evident throughout most of February, where record-breaking bitterly cold air from Siberia wracked the region, along with the eastern half of Canada, with incredibly low temperatures and record snowfalls. It is obvious that something is amiss with the planet's atmosphere when the US Northeast is getting weather, regularly now, that used to be found only within the Arctic Circle. As global temperatures slowly equalize as a result of ACD, the jet stream is no longer contained to its previous patterns.
January 2015 showed that worldwide temperatures are showing little sign of relenting from 2014's record high levels, as January matched the warmest records for the month in 125 years of data records, according to Japan's Meteorological Agency.
Lastly, the giant craters in Siberia that are believed to have been caused by methane gas eruptions in melting permafrost are now sparking fears of the unfolding of an Arctic natural disaster. That disaster would look like increasingly escalating temperatures that cause self-reinforcing feedback loops to kick in, and cause the permafrost in the Arctic to continue melting, hence releasing the rest of the trapped methane.
Denial and Reality
There is some big news on the ACD-denial front this month, as it was recently revealed how the deniers' favorite scientist, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics' Wei-Hock Soon, has been taking cash from corporate interests - and the documents are there to prove it. He has accepted more than a cool $1.2 million in money from the fossil fuel industry, and opted not to disclose that minor conflict of interest in the vast majority of his so-called scientific papers.
Nevertheless, others who are taking massive amounts of cash from the fossil fuel industry, like the infamous Sen. Jim Inhofe (R-Oklahoma), continue to spout on about how only God can cause climate change.
A recently published op-ed in LiveScience asks the question, "Is it safe to be a climate scientist?" given how aggressive and even dangerous the pushback has been against scientists for simply doing their jobs.
It's a legitimate question because given the fact that 2014 was the hottest year on record and all the other overwhelming evidence that ACD is in full swing and accelerating by the day, the denial movement has began to reach new heights of lying and propagandizing. By way of example, Australian Prime Minister Tony Abbott's top business advisor Maurice Newman says that he believes ACD is a "myth."

"We are conditioning ourselves to ignore the information coming into our ears."

Meanwhile, talk of "geoengineering" as a "solution" for ACD continues to grow in frequency and volume, to the extent that the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) recently issued two firmly pessimistic reports on the subject. The NAS refused to call it "geoengineering," however, instead calling it "climate intervention." The NAS panel rejects the use of the term "geoengineering" because, "We felt 'engineering' implied a level of control that is illusory," according to Dr. Marcia McNutt, who led the report committee.
Another, little-noticed factor that may be driving denial: noise pollution. A senior US scientist recently expressed concerns about how human-created noise is making us oblivious to the sound of nature. Rising background noise in some areas threatens to make people deaf to the sounds of birds, flowing water and wind blowing through trees, and the problem is exacerbated by people opting to use iPods during their hikes. "We are conditioning ourselves to ignore the information coming into our ears," the scientist said. Along with the fact that the majority of the global population now lacks regular access to wilderness, it is becoming ever easier for people to avoid thinking about ACD, since they are out of touch with the planet.
There have been important recent developments on the reality front for this section.
As a mitigation option, a recent Reuters story reminds us, "Giving more women who want it access to birth control to limit their family size, in both rich and poor countries, could be a hugely effective way to curb climate change, according to experts."
Truthout also recently published an analytical piece on this topic, noting that there are 225,000 people at the dinner table tonight who weren't there last night - and that the vast majority of carbon emissions are coming from so-called developed countries, rather than poorer "developing" countries.
In an action geared toward raising global awareness, Catholics in 45 countries aim to send an ACD message through their Lenten chain of fasting this year. In addition, Pope Francis' scheduled address to a joint session of Congress this fall is aiming to put Republican lawmakers who are ACD deniers square on the hot seat.
Given recent reports and events, let us remember the shockwaves caused in the global scientific community when, in 2010, Australian emeritus professor of microbiology Frank Fenner, who helped eradicate smallpox from the planet, predicted the human race would be extinct within the next 100 years. Believing humans will be unable to survive the ongoing twin-headed dragon of unbridled population explosion and overconsumption, Fenner stated unequivocally, "It's an irreversible situation. I think it's too late. I try not to express that because people are trying to do something, but they keep putting it off."
On that note, researchers at Oxford University recently compiled a "scientific assessment about the possibility of oblivion" that predicts various scenarios of how human civilization will most likely end.
With ACD listed as the No. 1 most likely way we perish, the list goes on to include other possibilities like global thermonuclear war, a global pandemic, ecological catastrophe and global system catastrophe. Only two of the 12 scenarios - major asteroid impact and a super volcano - were not anthropogenic.
Regarding ACD, the researchers believe the possibility of global coordination to mitigate the impacts to be the largest controllable factor in whether or not catastrophe can be prevented. However, they also warned that the impact of ACD would be strongest in poorer countries, and that large human die-offs stemming from migrations and famines would cause major global instability.
Copyright, Truthout. May not be reprinted without permission.

Saturday, February 28, 2015

Population Growth and Climate Change

Addressing Population Growth - Through Freedom, Not Control - Is Crucial to Confronting Climate Disruption

Sunday, 22 February 2015 00:00By Dahr Jamail, Truthout | Report
Population portrait
                                                                                    Comments due by Mar. 8, 2015
"We have 225,000 people at the dinner table tonight who weren't there last night," William Ryerson, the president of thePopulation Institute told Truthout. "Population is the multiplier of everything else."
Every year, the world population's net growth is equivalent to adding a new Egypt.
Very often, arguments about overpopulation are used in defense of racist, sexist, classist and even genocidal policies, including killings, forced sterilization and the mass denial of reproductive freedom. And often, those arguments target black and brown people, particularly people in "developing" countries, centering the problem on "women having too many kids," rather than looking at what is actually having a significant effect on the planet, and how we can confront it humanely and in the service of real social and environmental freedoms.
However, looking beyond the myths and dictates, the realities of population point to the contrary: Population-related problems, like anthropogenic climate disruption, stem from resource use in the West. If you live in North America and Western Europe and comprise 12 percent of the world's population, you account for 60 percent of the world's private consumptive spending, while the one-third of the global population that lives in South Asia and sub-Saharan Africa accounts for only 3.2 percent.

The United States, which comprises less than 5 percent of the global population, uses a quarter of the planet's total fossil fuel resources.

In order to have a conversation on this topic, we must first of all definitively end the equation of "overpopulation" with the birthrates of black or brown people living in so-called developing countries. Instead, we must focus on the fact that the United States, which comprises less than 5 percent of the global population, uses a quarter of the planet's total fossil fuel resources. The carbon emissions impact of the US population far surpasses that of those living in the "developing" world.
Even within the West, the disparity increases even further when we consider the fact that it is the richest who are using the majority of those resources. According to the World Bank, in 2011, US per capita energy use was 7,032 kilograms of oil equivalent, whereas in Bangladesh it was 205.
In another example, 320 million Americans consume more petroleum than do 1.3 billion Chinese, and thus emit far larger amounts of greenhouse gas, per capita.
As the populations of "developed" countries grow, their impacts are even greater than in less developed countries.
Ryerson believes anthropogenic climate disruption (ACD) cannot adequately be confronted until the rapid increase in global population begins to be addressed.
And he's not alone.

The wisest ways to address global overpopulation would be geared toward greater freedoms like wide-scale availability of free contraception, and abortion, sex and ACD education.

"Overpopulation means that we are putting more carbon dioxide into the atmosphere than we should, just because more people are doing it and this is related to overconsumption by people in general, especially in the 'developed' world," said Dr. Allan Drew, a forest ecologist, who believes overpopulation is a worse environmental problem than ACD.
As Drew pointed out, clearly overpopulation in "developed" countries, where consumption per person is so much more prevalent, is key.
report published in Science Daily in 2009 cited a poll of environmental experts who all believed that overpopulation was the single most pressing issue facing the planet.
In fact, even Scientific American has said that addressing global overpopulation is "the most overlooked and essential strategy for achieving long-term balance with the environment."
What does such a "strategy" look like? In this discussion, it is essential to make a connection between population and reproductive justice, rather than reproductive control: The wisest ways to address global overpopulation would be geared toward greater freedoms like wide-scale availability of free contraception, and abortion, sex and ACD education. Meanwhile, the reality of overpopulation and its carbon dioxide emission implications continue to grow.
"A Nice Utopia"
There are currently more than 7.2 billion people on the planet, another human is born every eight seconds and the United States is already the third most populous country in the world.
Future projections of population growth, according to the United Nations, show that the world will attain 8.92 billion people by 2050, with a peak of 9.22 billion in 2075.
"The additional 2 billion [onto our current 7.2 billion] is the climate equivalent to adding two USA's to the planet," said Ryerson, whose organization works to educate policy makers and the public about population and the need to achieve a world population that is in balance with a healthy global environment and resource base.
Additionally, rising populations also strain already vastly overstretched water resources.
"So to maintain our current population, we're already over-pumping underground aquifers," Ryerson said.
Greenhouse gas emissions have increased by record amounts each of the last several years to the highest carbon output in history, and each year is seeing another record.
This means that the aim of holding global temperatures to safe levels is now all but out of reach. The goal of preventing a temperature rise of more than 2 degrees Celsius, which scientists say is the threshold for potentially "dangerous climate change," is now most likely just "a nice utopia," according to Fatih Birol, a chief economist at the International Energy Agency.
Making Life on Earth "That Much More Difficult"
The current number of people on the planet, along with our "per capita behavior," is unsustainable, according to Ryerson.
"This is obvious in what has happened to the climate already," he said. "There are severe consequences already. And the cost of solving this problem of overpopulation is small compared to the cost of solving climate change as it progresses."
In particular, Ryerson sees a bleak future for water-starved countries like Saudi Arabia.
"Saudi Arabia has announced that the water they've been depending on, their underground aquifer for crops and drinking, will be gone by 2020," he explained. "They are dependent on imports, and can pay for it now, but in the future when oil declines, that country faces a serious issue of sustainability."
John Beddington, England's chief scientific adviser, has warned that these trends of a rising population and diminishing global resources may well constitute a "perfect storm."
In a major speech to environmental groups and politicians in 2009, he said, "It is predicted that by 2030 the world will need to produce around 50 percent more food and energy, together with 30 percent more fresh water, whilst mitigating and adapting to climate change. This threatens to create a 'perfect storm' of global events."

Large populations in richer countries have far greater consequences for the environment than growing populations in less "developed" countries.

Statistics underscore Beddington's point. At our current planetary trajectory, global population is likely to reach more than 8 billion by 2030, at which point demand for food will have increased by 40 percent with supplies not keeping apace. Global demand for water will have increased by 30 percent, and nearly 4 billion people will be living in areas of "high water stress."
Ryerson is also concerned about increasing biodiversity loss.
"The key issue is the large populations of plants and animals that make the planet inhabitable," Ryerson explained. "We need oxygen to breathe and water to drink. A 3 billion year evolution of plants and animals has made the planet habitable, and we are systematically destroying this biodiversity by plowing, cutting and burning areas."
Having more people on the planet naturally means greater demand for products, which leads to more and more wilderness areas being clear-cut, burned or harvested in order to provide for the demand increases of food and consumer goods.
Ryerson believes ongoing demand for products and the resulting encroachment on wilderness areas "will make life on the planet much more difficult. All of this together means the future of humanity, even with assumed innovation, has some very serious concerns. None of these problems are made easier by adding more people. The only way to achieve sustainability is to hold population growth, and have it decline."
As critical as the issue of overpopulation is, the topic gets attacked from both the political left and right.
"The right thinks endless growth is possible and is a good idea, and that the planet's resources are unlimited and will make it possible," Ryerson said. "The left thinks those who talk about overpopulation are only focused on the poorest of the poor and are also racially motivated."
In reality, large populations in richer countries have far greater consequences for the environment than growing populations in less "developed" countries.
However, instead of reframing these controversial topics, even scientists who recognize that population growth is a major factor in ACD often opt to avoid mentioning it.
But several paths forward are clear.
Broader education in "developed" countries about how far along we are regarding ACD - and the significance of population in that equation - is a necessity.
Also, statistics show that the more we pursue reproductive justice and freedom, the more birth rates fall. Full access to and education around contraception and abortion is crucial, ensuring that women have the freedom to make choices.
This is not to say that making these shifts will "solve" population growth. Even imposing massive, intrusive controls on population wouldn't "solve" it: Another study in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, titled Human Population Reduction is not a Quick Fix for Environmental Problems, shows that fertility reduction in the global population, even on the scale of implementing a one-child policy globally alongside non-human induced catastrophic mortality events, "would still likely result in 5-10 billion people by 2100. Because of this demographic momentum, there are no easy ways to change the broad trends of human population size this century."
Perhaps the best solution can be found in our attitude toward the growth of the human population on the planet.
In an excellent article published by Truthout several years ago, one aspect of this was addressed eloquently: "If we want to meet our goals for the development of human culture and the increase of well-being, the first prerequisite is that we change our attitude about the growth of human population," wrote Kelpie Wilson. "We do need to think about a social and economic system that will move us to that point as quickly as possible, and that system involves complete reproductive freedom and comprehensive health care for all women. We must trust women to make the reproductive decisions that are best for them and the planet."
Those steps must happen immediately, as the human population continues to rise, along with our fossil fuel emissions and the increasing ACD impacts that result from them.(Truthout by D. Jamail)

Friday, February 20, 2015

What Happens to Solar once TaxCredit Expires?

                                                              Comments due by Mar. 1, 2015

The Federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) is set to expire at the end of 2016 — and if it does, residential solar may be in trouble. “The ITC is the swing factor for homeowners — the plunge from 30 percent to zero will dramatically slow down sales for customer-owned systems,” opined Barry Cinnamon, CEO of Cinnamon Solar.

Friday, February 13, 2015

Environmental Impact of Fishing


                                              Comments due by Feb 22, 2015

In the process of producing food, economic resources, employment, livelihood and recreation, fisheries have to potential to modify ecosystems because fishing may alter or affect: the target resource (especially if there is overfishing of the target resource); species associated with or dependent on the targeted resource (such as predators or prey); trophic relationships within the ecosystem in which the fishery operates; and habitats in which fishing occurs. The impacts may be easily reversible, difficult to reverse, or irreversible. Under the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries, the fishing sector is expected to reduce its impacts to the minimum possible in ways that are also compatible with its own sustained existence.
Some of the more well-documented fishing activities that can have potentially negative impacts on the environment include:
Overfishing and excessive fishing can reduce the spawning biomass of a fishery below desired levels such as maximum sustainable or economic yields. In the process of producing food, economic resources, employment, livelihood and recreation, fisheries have to potential to modify ecosystems because fishing may alter or affect: the target resource (especially if there is overfishing of the target resource); species associated with or dependent on the targeted resource (such as predators or prey); trophic relationships within the ecosystem in which the fishery operates; and habitats in which fishing occurs. The impacts may be easily reversible, difficult to reverse, or irreversible. Under the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries, the fishing sector is expected to reduce its impacts to the minimum possible in ways that are also compatible with its own sustained existence. 
In the process of producing food, economic resources, employment, livelihood and recreation, fisheries have to potential to modify ecosystems because fishing may alter or affect: the target resource (especially if there is overfishing of the target resource); species associated with or dependent on the targeted resource (such as predators or prey); trophic relationships within the ecosystem in which the fishery operates; and habitats in which fishing occurs. The impacts may be easily reversible, difficult to reverse, or irreversible. Under the Code of Conduct for Responsible Fisheries, the fishing sector is expected to reduce its impacts to the minimum possible in ways that are also compatible with its own sustained existence.
Some of the more well-documented fishing activities that can have potentially negative impacts on the environment include:
  • Overfishing and excessive fishing can reduce the spawning biomass of a fishery below desired levels such as maximum sustainable or economic yields.
  • When there is sustained overfishing, changes in species composition and biodiversity can occur with progressive reduction of large, long-lived, and high value predator species and the increase in small, short-lived, and lower value pelagic and demersal prey species, a process described as 'fishing down the food chain'. Important macroscopic changes have been observed in many ecosystems such as the North Sea, Yellow Sea, North Atlantic (e.g. George's Bank and Barents Sea), Gulf of Thailand, and southeastern Australia. Intensive fishing can also reduce genetic diversity of wild populations (e.g. rapidly depressing the proportion of fast growing and late spawning individuals) and changes in species composition or dominance can also be provoked through competition for food between fisheries and marine apical predators.
  • Non-selective fishing gear that is not modified to exclude or otherwise deter the entanglement of fish, turtles, or seabirds, and as a result, may take a significant bycatch of juvenile fish, benthic animals, marine mammals, marine birds, vulnerable or endangered species, etc. that are often discarded dead. While bycatch and discard problems are usually measured in the potential loss of human food, the increased risk of depletion for particularly vulnerable or endangered species (e.g. small cetaceans, turtles) can be significant. In the North Sea, for example, the impact of discarded fish on the food chain and species composition is consequential because the discards can represent up to 30% of what some birds' would otherwise consume.
  • Ghost fishing can occur when certain gear such as pots or gillnets have either been lost or abandoned at sea and, although untended, continue to catch and kill fish until the gear falls apart.
  • Impacts on the bottom can result from the intense use of trawls and other mobile bottom gear (e.g. dredges) can change bottom structure, microhabitats, and benthic fauna. The effect is particularly obvious when these gears are used in sensitive environments where there are sea grass and algal beds, coral reefs, sponges, and tube worms. Where fishers work the same area year after year much like a farmer's fields, the long-term impacts of such repeated activities are less obvious on soft bottoms, although the scraping or ploughing the bottom to depths of as much as 30 cm can seriously disturb the substratum habitat and productivity.
  • Fishing entailing the use of dynamite and poisons can have severe and broad-reaching impacts, particularly on coral reefs.
    There are also other less conspicuous or debated environmental impacts of fisheries-related activities. Some relate to the direct dumping of debris (gear, twine, food containers, plastic bands, etc.) or the unintentional dumping and accidental introduction of unwanted organisms, pathogens, and non-indigenous/foreign/alien species by fishing vessels. Other impacts include the organic pollution from at-sea processing and the pollution caused by unregulated wastes and effluents from coastal processing plants. Finally, fishing vessels and processing plants also have the potential to contribute to global warming through exhaust fumes and refrigerant gases.
    Even fish processing can contribute to pollution at sea
    Even fish processing can contribute to pollution at sea
    Courtesy of NOAA/NMFS/William B. Folsom

    Possible solutions

    Solving the problem of overfishing - and, thus, the impacts of overfishing on the environment -- is a longstanding regulatory challenge that requires fishers to have clear ethical and financial reasons to not overharvest in their efforts to fish. Additional data and research on the environmental impacts of fishing on the ecosystem can help managers and fishers, alike, to make more informed decisions regarding the impacts of fishing and, in particular, on species composition and the environment. 
    When coupled with measures to avoid overharvesting, technologies to increase harvesting selectivity can similarly help to reduce bycatch and subsequent discarding. The problem of ghost fishing can be decreased through greater awareness raising, the prohibition and control of dumping of damaged gear at sea, and with active at-sea programmes for the retrieval of lost gear. Gear technology (e.g. biodegradable material, collapsible traps, etc.) can also diminish the ability of lost gear to continue catching fish. Improved gear technologies can be used to reduce the impacts of fishing on various habitats and on the bottom. Finally, the adoption and enforcement of measures to prohibit destructive fishing practices can also help to reduce the impacts of fishing on the environment.

    Action taken

    Countries have been tackling the problem of overfishing - and, thus, the impacts that overfishing can have on the environment - for a long time (although with limited success in many instances). However, under the International Plan of Action (IPOA) for the Management of Fishing Capacity (IPOA-Capacity) that was adopted at FAO in 1999, countries are currently working to address overcapacity and its many associated problems, including overfishing. In addition, under the 2001 FAO IPOA on Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing (IPOA - IUU), there are many efforts currently underway around the globe to address illegal, unreported, and otherwise unregulated fishing activities and, thus, also helping to counteract overfishing.
    NGOs have become very active at uncovering and illustrating the problems of the environmental and ecosystem impacts of fishing activities, exerting considerable pressure on governments and fishery organizations from very local to very global levels. Consumers are also starting to exert pressure on fisheries management, and the progressive use of environmental ecolabels based on sustainable fishing activities is also providing additional incentives to consider and mitigate the environmental impacts of fishing. To limit international trade in endangered fish species, CITES is adding fish species that are subject to large-scale exploitation to its annexes. Some countries have regulated discarding, imposing severe discard limits or banning it altogether and forcing the landing of all unwanted bycatch (e.g. in Norway, Canada, Iceland, and the Faeroe Islands).
    The fishing industry as a whole is working to address the operational side-effects of fisheries on the environment. The use of innovative gear modifications, including selective grids, panels and square meshes in several trawl fisheries is facilitating the escape of unwanted species or small-sized individuals. Special devices are currently used in tuna fisheries to successfully reduce dolphin catches. Longlines are being modified to reduce bycatch of birds, and an IPOA for Reducing Incidental Catch of Seabirds in Longline Fisheries was adopted by FAO in 1999. In some countries (e.g. Norway), programmes exist to retrieve lost gillnets lying on the bottom.
    Zoning strategies, including Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) has been used to keep trawlers away from vulnerable habitats, although with little success in areas where there is ineffective enforcement and/or fleet overcapacity. Programmes for the development of integrated and more sustainable livelihoodsare being implemented (e.g. by FAO in Western and Central Africa). Some countries (USA, Ireland) require the elaboration of an environmental impact assessment (EIA) and/or environmental impact statement (EIS) for their fisheries, whilst in other countries such as Australia, the fishing industry is voluntarily adopting and implementing environmental management systems.

    Outlook

    Awareness of the environmental impacts of fishing activities has been greatly increasing since UNCED (1992) both in the fisheries sector and among the public. The current pressure for ecosystem-based fisheries management is pushing managers and fishers to more specifically address the environmental impacts of fishing activities. The fishing sector progressively adopting economical technologies and approaches to environmentally acceptable fishing practices. Progress made in fishing and processing technology is significant and the fisheries sector is increasingly recognizing the benefits of ecolabelling. As a consequence, while much remains to be accomplished, the prospects for improvement are good. 


    Friday, February 6, 2015

    Amish Farmers are reinventing Organic Agriculture.

                                                           Comments due byFeb. 13, 2015
    “In the Second World War,” Samuel Zook began, “my ancestors were conscientious objectors because we don’t believe in combat.” The Amish farmer paused a moment to inspect a mottled leaf on one of his tomato plants before continuing. “If you really stop and think about it, though, when we go out spraying our crops with pesticides, that’s really what we’re doing. It’s chemical warfare, bottom line.”
    Eight years ago, it was a war that Zook appeared to be losing. The crops on his 66-acre farm were riddled with funguses and pests that chemical treatments did little to reduce. The now-39-year-old talked haltingly about the despair he felt at the prospect of losing a homestead passed down through five generations of his family. Disillusioned by standard agriculture methods, Zook searched fervently for an alternative. He found what he was looking for in the writings of an 18-year-old Amish farmer from Ohio, a man named John Kempf.
    Kempf is the unlikely founder of Advancing Eco Agriculture, a consulting firm established in 2006 to promote science-intensive organic agriculture. The entrepreneur’s story is almost identical to Zook’s. A series of crop failures on his own farm drove the 8th grade-educated Kempf to school himself in the sciences. For two years, he pored over research in biology, chemistry, and agronomy in pursuit of a way to save his fields. The breakthrough came from the study of plant immune systems which, in healthy plants, produce an array of compounds that are toxic to intruders. “The immune response in plants is dependent on well-balanced nutrition,” Kempf concluded, “in much the same way as our own immune system.” Modern agriculture uses fertilizer specifically to increase yields, he added, with little awareness of the nutritional needs of other organic functions. Through plant sap analysis, Kempf has been able to discover deficiencies in important trace minerals which he can then introduce into the soil. With plants able to defend themselves, pesticides can be avoided, allowing the natural predators of pests to flourish.
    According to Kempf, the methods he developed through experimentation on his Ohio farm are now being used across North and South America, Hawaii, Europe, and Africa. The entrepreneur promises clients higher-quality crops, bigger yields, better taste, and produce that carries a lucrative “organic” label. Kempf, however, considers his process as an important improvement upon standard organic farming methods. “Organic certification is a negative-process certification,” he explained, “You can do nothing to your field and become certified. In contrast, we focus on actively restoring the balance found in natural systems.”
    I recently sought out Samuel Zook, one of Kempf’s earliest converts, at his farm in Lancaster, Pennsylvania to see Advancing Eco Agriculture’s practices in action. After trailing a leisurely horse and carriage in my car for several miles, I was greeted at the farm by a bounding dog and Zook’s young barefoot son. The boy stared silently with his arms wrapped around a watermelon almost as big as himself. In a straw hat and suspenders, he looked like a miniature version of his father. The elder Zook smiled demurely through a neatly trimmed beard and extended his hand before inviting me on a tour of his fields. A hushed gaggle of children tripped along behind us as we walked among the bales of hay and rows of tomatoes, onions, melons, and squash.

    Roc Morin: Can you describe the differences between how you used to farm and how you farm now?
    Samuel Zook: The inputs changed drastically. Instead of trying to grow crops that are healthy with fungicides and pesticides, I started to grow crops that are healthy with nutrition.
    Morin: What was the hardest part about making the change?
    Zook: Well, there was a big psychological block that I had to get through. I’d see a couple bugs out there and feel like I immediately had to do something about it. But, I learned that if I sit back, things will often take care of themselves. That first summer for instance, we saw a lot of horn worms. Before that, I would have sprayed them right away, but this time I waited and a bunch of wasps came along and killed them. Once I saw that, I started getting really excited.
    Morin: So, when you use a pesticide you’re killing the predators too, right?
    Zook: Right. You’re killing the entire ecosystem.
    Morin: Have all of your problems disappeared?
    Zook: I wish I could say that, but not entirely. We’re not living in the Garden of Eden yet. The issues I had before have disappeared, but we still have some other issues that we’re working on. One of the main things that has improved is how it feels to farm. Before, if I applied fungicide on my tomatoes, I had to wait three to seven days before I could reenter the area. Now, it’s so nice to just walk in my field any day of the week and not worry a bit. That in itself is huge. The other thing is, when I used to mix these skull-and-cross-bones chemicals to put in my sprayer, I’d have to be suited up. The children would be around and I’d say, “Now, get in the house. It’s not safe.” Now though, if the children want to help, it’s fine. If I want to mix the solutions better, I’ll just put my hand in a stir it around.
    Morin: What are some of the problems that you’re dealing with now?
    Zook: One of my major issues in the greenhouse is spider mites—little insects that just love a warm, dry environment. It’s very hard to control them, even conventionally. We usually get them under control, but we often lose some yield.
    Morin: How do you get them under control?
    Zook: Mainly through applying specific trace minerals like iodine and a whole line of ultra-micronutrients. We analyzed the sap of the plants with the help of a lab and I think we’ve narrowed the problem down to excessive ammonium nitrates. If ammonia builds up in the plants, it’s bug food, so we need to figure out a way to convert ammonia fast. I just spent two days with John [Kempf], and he came up with an enzyme cofactor which we’ll use to stimulate that ammonia conversion. We figure things out ourselves now rather than call up the chemical rep.
    Morin: What did your chemical rep say when you told him that you didn’t need his services anymore?
    Zook: Well, that was an interesting summer. He used to come here every week telling me horror stories about all the diseases in the neighborhood. But, I had made up my made up my mind, “No mas.” He came back every week for eight weeks telling me what I needed to spray. I said, “I’m fine, thanks.” The last time he was here, we were out picking tomatoes and he walked over. He was looking around and talking about this and that, and he didn’t even mention pesticides. “Well,” he said, “your tomatoes look pretty good.” I thought, “Yes!”

    Saturday, January 31, 2015

    What Is Green Economics?



                                                                  Comments due by Feb. 7, 2015

    The concept of Green Economy is not entirely a new concept. It was first mooted by the London Environmental Economics Centre1 (LEEC) in a publication (Blueprint for a Sustainable Economy) in 1989 authored by David Pearce, Anil Markandya, and Ed Barbier. However, at that time the concept did not receive wide acceptance. With the outbreak of the financial crisis in 2007 and the failure of most countries to move onto a sustainable development path, it has become evidently clear that the current development paradigm is not yielding the desired outcomes on all fronts economic, social, and environmental. Efforts to transition to a sustainable development path and realize the objectives of Agenda 21 have been very modest. A number of reasons appear to have constrained this transition to take place. One of the reasons for lack of significant progress has been inability to clearly make the business case for investing in the environment. In order to encourage policy and decision makers to invest in the environment, they need to be convinced that such a transition would result in economic benefits as well. These benefits include additional jobs generated, increased output, creation of new market niches and increased trade, and a positive impact on GDP. It is therefore essential to demonstrate that there is a clear relationship between investing in the environment, socioeconomic and sustainable development. Since human welfare should be the ultimate goal for any development strategy, a well-designed sustainable development strategy should result in poverty eradication. Green Economy could be viewed as an approach that emphasizes these linkages. It could therefore be considered as a tool or vehicle that facilitates the transition to sustainable development. The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) defines the Green Economy as “one that results in improved human well-being and social equity, while significantly reducing environmental risks and ecological scarcities” (2010). Another more elaborate definition of green economy is: "The Green Economy is one in which the vital linkages among the economy, society, and environment are taken into account and in which the transformation of production processes, and consumption patterns, while contributing to a reduced waste, pollution, and the efficient use of resources, materials, and energy, will revitalize and diversify economies, create decent employment opportunities, promote sustainable trade, reduce poverty, and improve equity and income distribution." The following section will attempt to outline the main elements inherent in a Green Economy. Environment can no longer be treated in isolation from mainstream economic policy. Though integrating environment in macroeconomic policies has been long called for even as far back as the Brundtland Commission, efforts have been modest to achieve this goal. In most instances, the environment continues to be addressed as a separate component without clear linkages to the social and economic aspects. Integrated policymaking remains to be an approach yet to be adopted as the main framework for policy formulation and implementation. Lack of an integrated approach to policy formulation and implementation is therefore one of the main reasons for failing to achieve sustainable development. A Green Economy approach advocates the adoption of integrated policymaking. Adopting an ecosystem approach rather than dealing with different environmental biomes such as deserts, forests, and aquatic life as separate and isolated components of the environment. Adopting an ecosystem approach enables a better understanding and appreciation of the fact that the different biomes function as part of an integrated whole i.e. part of an ecosystem. Adopting such an approach ensures a clearer understanding of the linkages and interdependencies between the different biomes. It consequently results in a better management of the ecosystem and the services it provides. Following an integrated approach in dealing with the three sustainability dimensions and in dealing with the environment as an ecosystem enables us to better communicate the relationship between investing in the environment and the resulting positive social and development outcomes. It therefore provides a strong message to policy and decision makers of the necessity of integrating environmental, social, and  economic considerations in framing policies. Advocating the environment in isolation from economic and social objectives have in the past failed to deliver this strong message, which has resulted in considering the environment as a constraint or a liability rather than as an opportunity. Adopting a Green Economy approach highlights these interrelationships thus making a strong case for the transition. Adopting a participatory approach involving relevant stakeholders in policymaking is key in policy development and implementation. It ensures that policies reflect the concerns and priorities of the public, particularly the target group and affected communities. It also ensures the support and contribution of the general public and local communities in the implementation of proposed policies, plans, and programmes. Involvement of relevant stakeholders in policy formulation provides a better chance for the implementation and success of the proposed policies. Public participation should ensure the participation of women, youth, people with special needs, and marginalized communities. Adopting a participatory approach is particularly important in countries with a centralized decision making process. Ensuring inter- and intra-generational equity and poverty reduction is one of the main underlying principles of Green Economy. Designed policies should in the first instance ensure that the interests of the poor and marginalized communities are catered for. It should ensure that wealth generated should trickle down to the poorer segments of the population and that there is an equitable distribution of wealth between the current generation. It should also ensure that development activities now do not comprise the welfare of future generations. Green Economy advocates good governance as an essential prerequisite for achieving sustainable development. In order to encourage local and foreign investment, it is essential to have a stable and predictable macroeconomic environment. Such an environment will also need to be transparent and accountable. In the absence of a good and strong governance structure, the likelihood of moving onto a sustainable development path would be meager. Efficient institutions and governance structures are critical in ensuring the effective implementation of policies, plans, and programmes. Transitioning to a Green Economy requires a new mindset of doing business. It also requires a new caliber of skilled labour and professionals that can work across sectors, and able to work as part of multi-disciplinary teams. Transitioning into a Green Economy requires preparing these calibers through training and formal education. In order to achieve this objective, vocational training packages should be developed with focus on greening the sectors. The education system also needs to be reviewed to integrate the environmental and social considerations in the various disciplines. Investing in research, technology development, innovation, and the continuous enhancement of knowledge are essential for transitioning to a Green Economy. Countries that have allocated sufficient resources and invested heavily in research and development are countries that have managed to accelerate the pace of their economic growth. However, there is a need to clearly identify areas of research to be in line with and support sustainable development objectives. Research and technology innovation efforts need to be directed towards resource efficiency, and areas such as wastewater treatment and desalination, renewable energy, solid waste recycling and recovery, green construction and buildings, and environmentally friendly equipment and industrial technologies. In many instances government policies lack a comprehensive and holistic response to policy formulation and implementation. A suite of measures and actions are needed to achieve the goals and objectives of specific policies. These need to be designed in a complementary and supportive manner. For instance, market incentives should be designed to support regulatory measures. In many instances policy tools are designed independently and may be in contradiction to one another. Coherence and supportiveness of the different policy tools and measures should be maintained in order to support the realization of policy objectives. Subsidies for fossil fuel, for example, apart from being a burden on government budgets promote the inefficient allocation and excessive use of fossil fuel. Phasing out fossil fuel subsidies will release funds to support investment in renewable energy. Such policies may be supported by regulatory emission standards. The importance of political economy concerns should not be underestimated. Change may either be slow coming or even obstructed by those who believe that their interests may be compromised. Those may be politicians in high places and owners of large businesses and corporations. It is therefore important that when policies are formulated those who are likely to oppose change are identified and measures taken to address the hurdles they may create in the face of change. The role of the private sector in transitioning to a Green Economy and achieving sustainable development cannot be over emphasized. Constraints impeding the active involvement and contribution of civil society towards a transition to a Green Economy should be removed. Civil society being more familiar with realities on the ground, working closely with local communities, more familiar with their needs and priorities, and increased capabilities to operate on the ground can contribute effectively to achieving sustainable development objectives. Moreover, public-private-partnership consolidates efforts and enhances the potential for realizing sustainable development objectives. The financial sector both public and private should be encouraged to support financing projects and activities that contribute to sustainable development. Governments should ensure that funding provided by Central or Federal banks support government policies in pursuit of sustainable development objectives. Commercial banks should also be encouraged to support sustainable development projects through regulatory and incentive measures. Appropriate measures should be introduced to discourage banks from providing loans that encourage land speculation, or the funding of environmentally damaging and polluting activities. Governments spend large amounts of funding on its public service operations and activities. By greening its procurement, governments can demonstrate leadership and set the example for environmentally sound practices. On the physical side, this includes greening the construction of government offices, schools, hospitals, post offices, and other public buildings. Other green expenditures, include the purchase of environment-friendly office equipment and material. Greening its transport services for its employees would for example include providing buses run by natural gas or electricity, and providing incentives for government staff to use public transport and other means such as pooling and cycling. Trade policy if well formulated can be an effective tool in supporting the transition to a Green Economy. A well-designed trade policy can encourage investment in environmental goods and services, and technologies to satisfy the local market and for export. It can also encourage access to foreign environmental technologies. This can be achieved through regulations, and an incentive and tariff system that facilities access to environmental technologies. It should be emphasized that there is no one size fits all approach to sustainable development. The manner in which countries are prepared to use the Green Economy tool or vehicle for achieving sustainable development is up to countries to frame and design. This will have to be based on the pace at which countries are prepared to make the transition, their priorities, socioeconomic circumstances, and capacities. What are important are the political commitment and the will to shift to a sustainable development path. The review, selection and documentation of these articles emerged in response to the need to fill the knowledge gap on practical, concrete, and on the ground green economy country experience. It is in this spirit that the articles and excerpts included in this publication have been selected: to provide information and knowledge for policy and decision makers and practitioners on the positive implications of greening some priority sectors, including job creation, resource efficiency, and generally contribution to sustainable development.through an extensive review of scientific publications and magazines.
    Hussein Abaza